Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (80%) · Nets at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Pelicans22¢Nets78¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$109.42

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 78.5¢

+56% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans22%

Nets79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,654

Combined PnL+$167.69

Pelicans2 traders

Total Value$81.01

Total Shares275

Combined PnL-$58.27

Nets — 80%Pelicans — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Netsavg 48¢	$379.61	$502.19	+$122.58	30% 401-920 (1321)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Netsavg 63¢	$162.15	$163.44	+$1.29	53% 290-259 (549)
FL Flaznorp	Netsavg 47.4¢	$132.05	$133.73	+$1.68	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
AP AppleTiiime	Netsavg 50¢	$91.19	$125.84	+$34.65	52% 86-78 (164)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 50¢	$121	$100	+$1.44	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 50¢	$50	$54	+$4.44
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 49¢	$49	$46	-$3
RN1CTR	Pelicansavg 51¢	$110.61	$52.05	-$58.56	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Netsavg 47¢	$49.35	$51.98	+$2.63	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 49¢	$28.66	$28.95	+$0.29	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
PA Pan9X<$100	Netsavg 48¢	$33.88	$15.73	+$4	49% 692-733 (1425)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Netsavg 42.3¢	$6.35	$7.2	+$0.85	70% 1671-717 (2388)
RA Raisuu<$100	Netsavg 50¢	$1.5	$1.52	+$0.02	58% 23-17 (40)

Limousin

Nets

Invested

$379.61

Value

$502.19

PnL

+$122.58

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Nets

Invested

$162.15

Value

$163.44

PnL

+$1.29

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Flaznorp

Nets

Invested

$132.05

Value

$133.73

PnL

+$1.68

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

AppleTiiime

Nets

Invested

$91.19

Value

$125.84

PnL

+$34.65

Record

52%

86-78 (164)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$121

Value

$100

PnL

+$1.44

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Invested

$110.61

Value

$52.05

PnL

-$58.56

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Nets

Invested

$49.35

Value

$51.98

PnL

+$2.63

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$28.66

Value

$28.95

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Pan9X<$100

Nets

Invested

$33.88

Value

$15.73

PnL

+$4

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

SunlineTicker<$100

Nets

Invested

$6.35

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.85

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

Raisuu<$100

Nets

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

23-17 (40)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.