Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 220.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 52¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
1 arb excluded
$7.5K
-$82.69
53.3¢ → 51.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 52.9¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | -$25.53 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.9¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$83.57 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$58.04 | |
HI hi774c | Overavg 53¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$54.83 | 51% 4818-4540 (9358) |
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $375.51 | $379.42 | +$3.91 | 49% 353-369 (722) |
SU SunlineTicker | Overavg 55¢ | $354.75 | $332.18 | -$22.57 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 53¢ | $308.99 | $300.25 | -$8.74 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 53.5¢ | $53.4 | $52.97 | -$0.43 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.58 | -$0.03 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
Invested
$4,582.45
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$25.53
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,925.5
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$54.83
Record
51%
4818-4540 (9358)
Invested
$375.51
Value
$379.42
PnL
+$3.91
Record
49%
353-369 (722)
Invested
$354.75
Value
$332.18
PnL
-$22.57
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$308.99
Value
$300.25
PnL
-$8.74
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$53.4
Value
$52.97
PnL
-$0.43
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.