Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 223.5

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 45¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$12.89

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 45¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$432.02

Total Shares917

Combined PnL-$12.89

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+80 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$64.84	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.3¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$106.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$41.83
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$549.08	$545.91	-$3.17	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$403.26	$403.26	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$145.82	$142.65	-$3.17
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$403.92	$378.67	-$12.62	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 53.8¢	$67.25	$67.01	-$0.24	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.8¢	$41.91	$42.88	+$0.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.2¢	$25.34	$24.13	-$1.21
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$42.67	$42.1	+$0.19	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46.3¢	$6.95	$6.75	-$0.2	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$4.76	$4.49	-$0.27	55% 7318-5882 (13200)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,553.22

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$64.84

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Under$2,049.1552.3¢+$106.67

Over$1,504.0746.3¢-$41.83

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$549.08

Value

$545.91

PnL

-$3.17

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Both legs:

Under$403.2655¢+$0

Over$145.8246¢-$3.17

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$403.92

Value

$378.67

PnL

-$12.62

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$67.25

Value

$67.01

PnL

-$0.24

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

Both legs:

Under$41.9153.8¢+$0.97

Over$25.3447.2¢-$1.21

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.67

Value

$42.1

PnL

+$0.19

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.27

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+80 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.