Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 76¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$496.27

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 76¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,470

Combined PnL+$613.35

Over4 traders

Total Value$755.19

Total Shares2,027

Combined PnL-$117.08

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 59.8¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$477.72	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1	Underavg 58.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$99.69	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 40.6¢	$605.97	$600.77	-$5.2	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.6¢	$333.72	$308.14	-$25.57
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.1¢	$272.25	$292.63	+$20.38
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 61.9¢	$704.91	$589.69	+$36.39	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 41¢	$656	$568	-$88	27% 63-170 (233)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 64.6¢	$447.37	$360.38	-$46.97	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.6¢	$210.12	$234.34	+$16.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.1¢	$189.48	$126.03	-$63.9
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 51¢	$142.14	$117.05	-$25.08	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 38.2¢	$70.59	$57.6	+$7.41	49% 444-470 (914)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$23.94	$12.54	-$11.4	28% 275-716 (991)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 67¢	$3.35	$2.9	-$0.45	34% 233-457 (690)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,543.59

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$477.72

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,007.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$99.69

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$605.97

Value

$600.77

PnL

-$5.2

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Both legs:

Over$333.7240.6¢-$25.57

Under$272.2558.1¢+$20.38

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$704.91

Value

$589.69

PnL

+$36.39

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$656

Value

$568

PnL

-$88

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$447.37

Value

$360.38

PnL

-$46.97

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Under$210.1264.6¢+$16.94

Over$189.4842.1¢-$63.9

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$142.14

Value

$117.05

PnL

-$25.08

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.59

Value

$57.6

PnL

+$7.41

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.94

Value

$12.54

PnL

-$11.4

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.45

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.