Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (25%) · Cavaliers at 59¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12

Knicks42¢Cavaliers58¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$2.89

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks42%

Cavaliers59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares13,409

Combined PnL+$64.34

Knicks6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares12,292

Combined PnL-$61.45

Cavaliers — 25%Knicks — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cavaliers) and the top 1000 (7 on Knicks) disagree here.

ctrCavaliers 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Cavaliersavg 58¢	$7.5K	$7.6K	+$65.73	52% 464-433 (897)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Knicksavg 42¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$35.31	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
HI hi774cCTR	Knicksavg 42¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$22.71	14% 76-472 (548)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Cavaliersavg 58.8¢	$279.2	$277.8	-$1.4	49% 497-522 (1019)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Knicksavg 42¢	$160.44	$158.53	-$1.91	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Knicksavg 42¢	$82.02	$81.07	-$0.95	48% 1381-1515 (2896)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Knicksavg 42¢	$73.91	$74.32	+$0.42	45% 267-322 (589)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 42¢	$39.98	$39.51	-$0.48
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 57¢	$33.92	$34.81	+$0.89
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Knicksavg 42¢	$37.16	$36.72	-$0.44	38% 352-584 (936)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Knicksavg 42¢	$10.5	$10.38	-$0.13	48% 673-715 (1388)

VeryLucky888

Cavaliers

Invested

$7,532.8

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$65.73

Record

52%

464-433 (897)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Knicks

Invested

$2,966

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$35.31

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

hi774cCTR

Knicks

Invested

$1,907.84

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$22.71

Record

14%

76-472 (548)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Cavaliers

Invested

$279.2

Value

$277.8

PnL

-$1.4

Record

49%

497-522 (1019)

FlaznorpCTR

Knicks

Invested

$160.44

Value

$158.53

PnL

-$1.91

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$82.02

Value

$81.07

PnL

-$0.95

Record

48%

1381-1515 (2896)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$73.91

Value

$74.32

PnL

+$0.42

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

Both legs:

Knicks$39.9842¢-$0.48

Cavaliers$33.9257¢+$0.89

sentrioCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$37.16

Value

$36.72

PnL

-$0.44

Record

38%

352-584 (936)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

673-715 (1388)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cavaliers) and the top 1000 (7 on Knicks) disagree here.

ctrCavaliers 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.