Spread: Knicks (-8.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (33%) · Cavaliers at 82¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Knicks19¢Cavaliers81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$64.17

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 81.5¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks19%

Cavaliers82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers3 traders

Total Value$405.97

Total Shares492

Combined PnL+$30.52

Knicks6 traders

Total Value$364.68

Total Shares972

Combined PnL+$33.65

Cavaliers — 33%Knicks — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Cavaliersavg 74.6¢	$310.14	$339.04	+$28.9	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 62.5¢	$417.96	$275.78	+$6.3	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 62.5¢	$209.31	$207.7	+$1.91
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 34.6¢	$63.69	$68.08	+$4.39
SN SnakeBallCTR	Knicksavg 33¢	$197.34	$223.25	+$25.91	46% 292-339 (631)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Knicksavg 24¢	$89.52	$102.58	+$13.06	55% 718-583 (1301)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cavaliersavg 62.6¢	$93.25	$63.83	+$1.67	49% 684-724 (1408)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Knicksavg 34.5¢	$20.58	$22.07	+$1.49	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Knicksavg 38¢	$19	$12	-$7	53% 5788-5165 (10953)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Knicksavg 41¢	$3.23	$3.31	+$0.08	50% 3299-3255 (6554)
DV dv-pm<$100	Cavaliersavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.1	-$0.05	— 6-5 (11)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Knicksavg 34¢	$1.36	$1.48	+$0.12	39% 382-610 (992)

RN1

Cavaliers

Invested

$310.14

Value

$339.04

PnL

+$28.9

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$417.96

Value

$275.78

PnL

+$6.3

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$209.3162.5¢+$1.91

Knicks$63.6934.6¢+$4.39

SnakeBallCTR

Knicks

Invested

$197.34

Value

$223.25

PnL

+$25.91

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Knicks

Invested

$89.52

Value

$102.58

PnL

+$13.06

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

Pan9X<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$93.25

Value

$63.83

PnL

+$1.67

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$20.58

Value

$22.07

PnL

+$1.49

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$19

Value

$12

PnL

-$7

Record

53%

5788-5165 (10953)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

dv-pm<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

6-5 (11)

sentrioCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.12

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.