Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (78%) · Nuggets at 74¢ · $886 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
9
Nuggets 78%
$886.32
-$67.83
43.1¢ → 73.5¢
+70% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 74%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Nuggetsavg 43.8¢ | $303.7 | $301.89 | -$1.81 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
 VeryLucky888 | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $256.89 | $232.99 | +$3.16 | 52% 497-452 (949) |
SN SnakeBall | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $114.4 | $115.73 | +$1.33 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Nuggetsavg 42¢ | $109.67 | $110.97 | +$1.31 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
 RN1CTR | Grizzliesavg 55¢ | $145.2 | $73.92 | -$71.28 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $44.27 | $43.76 | -$0.51 | 39% 394-619 (1013) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 56¢ | $3.2 | $3.23 | +$0.03 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.13 | -$0.02 | 34% 327-634 (961) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $1.74 | $1.72 | -$0.02 | 59% 3478-2370 (5848) |
Invested
$303.7
Value
$301.89
PnL
-$1.81
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
VeryLucky888Invested
$256.89
Value
$232.99
PnL
+$3.16
Record
52%
497-452 (949)
Invested
$114.4
Value
$115.73
PnL
+$1.33
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$109.67
Value
$110.97
PnL
+$1.31
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
RN1CTRInvested
$145.2
Value
$73.92
PnL
-$71.28
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$44.27
Value
$43.76
PnL
-$0.51
Record
39%
394-619 (1013)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.02
Record
34%
327-634 (961)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$0.02
Record
59%
3478-2370 (5848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.