Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Mavericks (59%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pacers vs. Mavericks

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (54%) · Pacers at 42¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10

Pacers42¢Mavericks58¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 54%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$34.44

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 41.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pacers42%

Mavericks59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares19,265

Combined PnL+$181.34

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,962

Combined PnL-$146.9

Pacers — 54%Mavericks — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Pacersavg 40.5¢	$7.3K	$7.4K	+$171.39	45% 14872-18205 (33077)
DA darkumbreon88	Mavericksavg 61¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$155.36	65% 2214-1211 (3425)
PU purplegatto	Mavericksavg 62.6¢	$529.21	$530.23	+$1.01	49% 6745-6941 (13686)
FL Flaznorp	Mavericksavg 57¢	$419.88	$430.93	+$11.05	52% 49335-46295 (95630)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pacersavg 39.4¢	$311.81	$328.04	+$16.23	45% 2602-3122 (5724)
GH ghorrock	Mavericksavg 58.6¢	$113.07	$102.16	+$0.39	57% 25439-18984 (44423)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Pacersavg 41.5¢	$95.14	$96.11	-$6	48% 8395-8930 (17325)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Pacersavg 37.2¢	$56.17	$60.82	+$2.39	51% 6049-5802 (11851)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Pacersavg 43.2¢	$63.1	$60.59	-$2.51	45% 2614-3160 (5774)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 57¢	$21.66	$41.13	-$2.68	53% 28233-25512 (53745)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Pacersavg 40¢	$20.8	$21.84	-$0.26	50% 1623-1614 (3237)
38 38791873984189<$100	Mavericksavg 66.7¢	$12.98	$11.68	-$1.31	48% 72042-77747 (149789)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 37¢	$8.28	$8.38	+$0.1	45% 2644-3186 (5830)

nigiri99CTR

Pacers

Invested

$7,270.8

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$171.39

Record

45%

14872-18205 (33077)

darkumbreon88

Mavericks

Invested

$3,158.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$155.36

Record

65%

2214-1211 (3425)

purplegatto

Mavericks

Invested

$529.21

Value

$530.23

PnL

+$1.01

Record

49%

6745-6941 (13686)

Flaznorp

Mavericks

Invested

$419.88

Value

$430.93

PnL

+$11.05

Record

52%

49335-46295 (95630)

LightParadoxCTR

Pacers

Invested

$311.81

Value

$328.04

PnL

+$16.23

Record

45%

2602-3122 (5724)

ghorrock

Mavericks

Invested

$113.07

Value

$102.16

PnL

+$0.39

Record

57%

25439-18984 (44423)

OddstormCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$95.14

Value

$96.11

PnL

-$6

Record

48%

8395-8930 (17325)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$56.17

Value

$60.82

PnL

+$2.39

Record

51%

6049-5802 (11851)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$63.1

Value

$60.59

PnL

-$2.51

Record

45%

2614-3160 (5774)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$21.66

Value

$41.13

PnL

-$2.68

Record

53%

28233-25512 (53745)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$20.8

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

1623-1614 (3237)

38791873984189<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$12.98

Value

$11.68

PnL

-$1.31

Record

48%

72042-77747 (149789)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$8.28

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$0.1

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.