Spread: Suns (-1.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (33%) · Suns at 91¢ · $885 held · ended Nov 11

Suns91¢Clippers9¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$884.81

Combined PnL

-$12.85

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 90.5¢

+52% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns91%

Clippers10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns2 traders

Total Value$249.15

Total Shares453

Combined PnL-$20.4

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$267.92

Total Shares649

Combined PnL+$7.55

Suns — 33%Clippers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Suns) and the top 1000 (5 on Clippers) disagree here.

ctrClippers 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Clippersavg 40¢	$267.25	$286.15	+$18.9	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 40¢	$151.2	$170.1	+$18.9
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 55¢	$116.05	$116.05	-$0
RN1	Sunsavg 60¢	$226.8	$207.9	-$18.9	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
VeryLucky888CTR	Clippersavg 41¢	$137.98	$151.44	+$13.46	51% 330-315 (645)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Clippersavg 45¢	$155.47	$81.59	-$73.89	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 89¢	$60.52	$61.54	+$1.02
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 45¢	$94.95	$20.05	-$74.91
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$62.51	$59.85	-$2.66	56% 502-393 (895)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$52.4	$50.17	-$2.23	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 57¢	$42.75	$41.25	-$1.5	49% 446-472 (918)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Clippersavg 11¢	$7.48	$6.46	-$1.02	28% 304-772 (1076)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$267.25

Value

$286.15

PnL

+$18.9

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Clippers$151.240¢+$18.9

Suns$116.0555¢-$0

RN1

Suns

Invested

$226.8

Value

$207.9

PnL

-$18.9

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

VeryLucky888CTR

Clippers

Invested

$137.98

Value

$151.44

PnL

+$13.46

Record

51%

330-315 (645)

takeormakeARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$155.47

Value

$81.59

PnL

-$73.89

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Both legs:

Suns$60.5289¢+$1.02

Clippers$94.9545¢-$74.91

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$62.51

Value

$59.85

PnL

-$2.66

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$52.4

Value

$50.17

PnL

-$2.23

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$42.75

Value

$41.25

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

VenusianCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.48

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$1.02

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Suns) and the top 1000 (5 on Clippers) disagree here.

ctrClippers 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.