Spread: Suns (-8.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (44%) · Suns at 97¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Suns97¢Clippers3¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 44%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$52.03

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 97¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns97%

Clippers3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,568

Combined PnL+$435.92

Clippers5 traders

Total Value$67.56

Total Shares1,521

Combined PnL-$383.89

Suns — 44%Clippers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 76.4¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$110.87	56% 504-395 (899)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 71.3¢	$996	$1.2K	+$196	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
RN1	Sunsavg 45.1¢	$117.07	$223.31	+$106.25	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Sunsavg 56¢	$31.22	$54.02	+$22.8	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Clippersavg 31.4¢	$357.71	$39.89	-$317.82	54% 217-188 (405)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$58.8	$16.8	-$42	2% 7-382 (389)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Clippersavg 2¢	$6.7	$8.12	+$1.42	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$24.53	$1.95	-$22.58	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Clippersavg 65¢	$3.71	$0.8	-$2.91	49% 220-229 (449)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$1,908.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$110.87

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$996

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$196

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$117.07

Value

$223.31

PnL

+$106.25

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Suns

Invested

$31.22

Value

$54.02

PnL

+$22.8

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Clippers

Invested

$357.71

Value

$39.89

PnL

-$317.82

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$58.8

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$42

Record

7-382 (389)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$6.7

Value

$8.12

PnL

+$1.42

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$24.53

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$22.58

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.71

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$2.91

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.