Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 218.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 38¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$148.48

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 38¢

-21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$440.53

Total Shares1,292

Combined PnL-$184.19

Over6 traders

Total Value$672.73

Total Shares913

Combined PnL+$35.71

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$551.54	$656.6	+$105.06	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.7¢	$243.06	$381.85	+$138.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.7¢	$308.48	$274.75	-$33.74
RN1CTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$609.73	$432.11	-$177.62	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 68.9¢	$505.96	$356.09	-$116.55	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.9¢	$253.96	$241.55	-$12.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.6¢	$194.57	$114.54	-$104.14
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 56¢	$188.32	$220.14	+$31.82	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 68.9¢	$200.07	$171.97	-$22.34	48% 969-1052 (2021)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 42¢	$46.82	$86.95	+$40.13	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 66¢	$67.32	$66.81	-$0.51	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 66¢	$66	$65.5	-$0.5	64% 180-100 (280)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 69.7¢	$91.7	$61.35	-$12.89	49% 450-474 (924)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$11.87	$5.36	-$4.11	54% 401-336 (737)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$5.52	$3.06	-$2.45	49% 220-229 (449)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$551.54

Value

$656.6

PnL

+$105.06

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Over$243.0641.7¢+$138.79

Under$308.4838.7¢-$33.74

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$609.73

Value

$432.11

PnL

-$177.62

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$505.96

Value

$356.09

PnL

-$116.55

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Over$253.9668.9¢-$12.41

Under$194.5758.6¢-$104.14

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$188.32

Value

$220.14

PnL

+$31.82

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$200.07

Value

$171.97

PnL

-$22.34

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$46.82

Value

$86.95

PnL

+$40.13

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$67.32

Value

$66.81

PnL

-$0.51

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$66

Value

$65.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$91.7

Value

$61.35

PnL

-$12.89

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.87

Value

$5.36

PnL

-$4.11

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.52

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$2.45

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.