Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 54¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$203.71

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 53.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,205

Combined PnL-$17.4

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,815

Combined PnL+$221.11

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$30.06	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 42.6¢	$263.4	$448	+$184.6	56% 504-395 (899)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 45.3¢	$300.39	$399.07	+$98.68	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 53.4¢	$464.83	$312.88	-$151.95	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.4¢	$355.88	$159.89	-$195.99
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.1¢	$108.95	$152.99	+$44.04
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 56¢	$264.32	$221.84	-$42.48	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 76¢	$142.13	$131.42	-$10.71	48% 969-1052 (2021)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 45¢	$101.7	$54.24	-$47.46	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 73.8¢	$49.16	$44.68	-$4.48	49% 450-474 (924)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$46.8	$42.3	-$4.5	30% 134-317 (451)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.8	+$0	54% 401-336 (737)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,018.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$30.06

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$263.4

Value

$448

PnL

+$184.6

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$300.39

Value

$399.07

PnL

+$98.68

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$464.83

Value

$312.88

PnL

-$151.95

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Under$355.8853.4¢-$195.99

Over$108.9554.1¢+$44.04

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$264.32

Value

$221.84

PnL

-$42.48

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$142.13

Value

$131.42

PnL

-$10.71

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$101.7

Value

$54.24

PnL

-$47.46

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.16

Value

$44.68

PnL

-$4.48

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.8

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$4.5

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.