Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 226.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 59¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$303.44

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 58.5¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,041

Combined PnL-$241.33

Over2 traders

Total Value$467.02

Total Shares1,125

Combined PnL-$62.11

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 55.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$110.71	56% 502-393 (895)
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.9¢	$462.62	$605.44	+$142.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.8¢	$632.27	$600.16	-$32.11
RN1	Underavg 70.1¢	$1.2K	$952.48	-$199.46	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 47.1¢	$518	$462	-$56	47% 500-558 (1058)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 53.3¢	$283.38	$294.31	+$104.39	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.3¢	$161.71	$177.35	+$15.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.1¢	$70.7	$116.96	+$88.75
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 68.8¢	$210.41	$163.71	-$46.7	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 75¢	$39.54	$42.17	+$2.64	50% 190-192 (382)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 51¢	$15.3	$16.05	+$0.75	49% 446-472 (918)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 65.5¢	$6.55	$8	+$1.45	55% 399-332 (731)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 44.4¢	$11.13	$5.02	-$6.11	57% 3074-2312 (5386)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,094.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$110.71

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

Over$462.6235.9¢+$142.82

Under$632.2755.8¢-$32.11

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,151.94

Value

$952.48

PnL

-$199.46

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$518

Value

$462

PnL

-$56

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$283.38

Value

$294.31

PnL

+$104.39

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Under$161.7153.3¢+$15.64

Over$70.725.1¢+$88.75

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$210.41

Value

$163.71

PnL

-$46.7

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$39.54

Value

$42.17

PnL

+$2.64

Record

50%

190-192 (382)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15.3

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$6.55

Value

PnL

+$1.45

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.13

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$6.11

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.