Spread: Lakers (-11.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 54¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
8
Lakers 50%
$7.3K
-$60.7
53¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP AppleTiiime | Lakersavg 53¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$0.18 | 52% 86-78 (164) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 46.9¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$55.76 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
 VeryLucky888 | Lakersavg 53¢ | $500 | $265 | -$5 | 52% 441-413 (854) |
SE sentrioCTR | Bucksavg 46.8¢ | $192.86 | $193.54 | +$0.68 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Lakersavg 54¢ | $40.17 | $39.43 | -$0.74 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 46¢ | $20.16 | $20.16 | -$0 | 48% 1273-1369 (2642) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Lakersavg 53¢ | $9.6 | $9.6 | +$0 | 51% 1818-1777 (3595) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.3 | -$0.05 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
Invested
$3,850.85
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$0.18
Record
52%
86-78 (164)
Invested
$2,952.88
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$55.76
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
VeryLucky888Invested
$500
Value
$265
PnL
-$5
Record
52%
441-413 (854)
Invested
$192.86
Value
$193.54
PnL
+$0.68
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Invested
$40.17
Value
$39.43
PnL
-$0.74
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$20.16
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1273-1369 (2642)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1818-1777 (3595)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.05
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.