Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 1 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (11%) · Under at 49¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 11%
$18.7K
$791.78
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Underavg 47.3¢ | $9.0K | $9.2K | +$222 | 48% 101-110 (211) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 52.5¢ | $5.1K | $5.4K | +$340.24 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
HI hi774c | Overavg 53¢ | $2.7K | $2.9K | +$153.31 | 14% 75-471 (546) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $295.05 | $314.72 | +$19.67 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
FO forecastication4 | Overavg 52¢ | $265.2 | $285.6 | +$20.4 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $262.5 | $280 | +$17.5 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 52.5¢ | $224.17 | $239.12 | +$14.95 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 53.3¢ | $40 | $42 | +$2 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $25.58 | $27.29 | +$1.71 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
Invested
$9,025.61
Value
$9.2K
PnL
+$222
Record
48%
101-110 (211)
Invested
$5,083
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$340.24
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$2,708.42
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$153.31
Record
14%
75-471 (546)
Invested
$295.05
Value
$314.72
PnL
+$19.67
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$265.2
Value
$285.6
PnL
+$20.4
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
VeryLucky888Invested
$262.5
Value
$280
PnL
+$17.5
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$224.17
Value
$239.12
PnL
+$14.95
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$40
Value
$42
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$25.58
Value
$27.29
PnL
+$1.71
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.