Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Jazz (61%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Heat (-11.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (89%) · Heat at 40¢ · $733 held · ends Nov 11

Heat40¢Jazz60¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$732.58

Combined PnL

-$15.72

Smart Money Entry

41.2¢ → 39.5¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat40%

Jazz61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat8 traders

Total Value$512.35

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL-$15.13

Jazz1 trader

Total Value$34.84

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$0.59

Heat — 89%Jazz — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Heatavg 38.4¢	$179.08	$185.4	+$6.31	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 38.4¢	$135.46	$141.14	+$5.68
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 59.1¢	$43.62	$44.26	+$0.64
VeryLucky888CTR	Heatavg 41¢	$188.49	$183.89	-$4.6	50% 262-258 (520)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Heatavg 40.6¢	$137.57	$135.65	-$1.92	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Heatavg 42.3¢	$100.22	$94.87	-$5.35	47% 149-168 (317)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Heatavg 42¢	$48.3	$46	-$2.3	52% 128-119 (247)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 61¢	$39.03	$34.84	-$0.59	49% 440-464 (904)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Heatavg 41¢	$28.2	$27.51	-$0.69	32% 184-398 (582)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Heatavg 41¢	$16.4	$16	-$0.4	26% 234-663 (897)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Heatavg 40¢	$6.35	$6.43	+$0.08	60% 3442-2338 (5780)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Heatavg 39¢	$1.95	$2	+$0.05	26% 177-517 (694)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$179.08

Value

$185.4

PnL

+$6.31

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Heat$135.4638.4¢+$5.68

Jazz$43.6259.1¢+$0.64

VeryLucky888CTR

Heat

Invested

$188.49

Value

$183.89

PnL

-$4.6

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

FlaznorpCTR

Heat

Invested

$137.57

Value

$135.65

PnL

-$1.92

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

SnakeBallCTR

Heat

Invested

$100.22

Value

$94.87

PnL

-$5.35

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$48.3

Value

$46

PnL

-$2.3

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$39.03

Value

$34.84

PnL

-$0.59

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

sentrioCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$28.2

Value

$27.51

PnL

-$0.69

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$16.4

Value

$16

PnL

-$0.4

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

NM-PCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$6.35

Value

$6.43

PnL

+$0.08

Record

60%

3442-2338 (5780)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$1.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.