Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (72%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 218.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 28¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$202.62

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 28.5¢

-28% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$497.53

Total Shares699

Combined PnL+$31.17

Under8 traders

Total Value$597.07

Total Shares2,080

Combined PnL-$233.79

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 66.5¢	$457.76	$488.5	+$30.73	56% 504-395 (899)
RN1CTR	Underavg 37.7¢	$298.1	$225.47	-$72.62	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$307.84	$194.62	-$110.71	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 39.8¢	$114.22	$83.16	-$31.06	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$38.57	$38.57	-$0	48% 969-1052 (2021)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$43.75	$35.63	-$8.13	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$14.1	$8.7	-$5.4	49% 450-474 (924)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$13.13	$8.35	-$4.77	49% 220-229 (449)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 60¢	$5.1	$5.49	+$0.39	54% 401-336 (737)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.55	+$0.05	35% 266-490 (756)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$3.66	$2.56	-$1.1	29% 307-750 (1057)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$457.76

Value

$488.5

PnL

+$30.73

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$298.1

Value

$225.47

PnL

-$72.62

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$307.84

Value

$194.62

PnL

-$110.71

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$114.22

Value

$83.16

PnL

-$31.06

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.57

Value

$38.57

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.75

Value

$35.63

PnL

-$8.13

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.1

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$5.4

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.13

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$4.77

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0.39

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.66

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$1.1

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.