Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 58¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 11

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$515.33

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 58¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares15,986

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares14,841

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 49.7¢	$7.4K	$10.1K	+$2.7K	26% 12-35 (47)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50¢	$5.6K	$4.0K	$-1.5K	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$664.57	54% 217-188 (405)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 44.1¢	$619.58	$608.03	+$23.66	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.1¢	$309.93	$456.89	+$146.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.5¢	$239.82	$151.13	-$123.31
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 49¢	$553.6	$553.7	+$0.1	30% 134-317 (451)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 45.7¢	$97.59	$131.96	+$34.38	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.7¢	$62.38	$79.78	+$17.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 28¢	$35.21	$52.18	+$16.97
RN1<$100	Underavg 49¢	$26.87	$35.09	+$8.22	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 55.2¢	$16.95	$11.34	-$2.59	54% 383-322 (705)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$7,362.68

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

26%

12-35 (47)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$5,560.25

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,942.85

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$664.57

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$619.58

Value

$608.03

PnL

+$23.66

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Under$309.9344.1¢+$146.97

Over$239.8255.5¢-$123.31

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$553.6

Value

$553.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$97.59

Value

$131.96

PnL

+$34.38

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Under$62.3845.7¢+$17.4

Over$35.2128¢+$16.97

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$26.87

Value

$35.09

PnL

+$8.22

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.95

Value

$11.34

PnL

-$2.59

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.