Spread: Rockets (-9.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (60%) · Timberwolves at 80¢ · $615 held · ended Nov 5

Rockets20¢Timberwolves80¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 60%

Total Value

$615.49

Combined PnL

$67.1

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 80¢

+45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets20%

Timberwolves80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves6 traders

Total Value$452.39

Total Shares700

Combined PnL+$68.14

Rockets4 traders

Total Value$163.1

Total Shares396

Combined PnL-$1.04

Timberwolves — 60%Rockets — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Timberwolves) and the top 1000 (7 on Rockets) disagree here.

whaleTimberwolves 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Timberwolvesavg 54¢	$270	$150.99	+$20	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
38 38791873984189	Timberwolvesavg 54¢	$99.74	$133.86	+$42.09	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
HO HomeRunHazard	Timberwolvesavg 54.6¢	$122.86	$129.18	+$6.33	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
NM NM-PCTR	Rocketsavg 42¢	$104.99	$100	-$5	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 37.2¢	$23.03	$29.04	+$6.01	50% 4971-4900 (9871)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 45¢	$19.71	$19.96	+$0.25	54% 11950-10370 (22320)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Timberwolvesavg 68.1¢	$23.35	$19.88	-$4.29	48% 371-394 (765)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Timberwolvesavg 59.2¢	$10.07	$14.28	+$4.21	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 43.2¢	$15.42	$14.1	-$2.3	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Timberwolvesavg 70¢	$3.62	$4.19	-$0.21	50% 4274-4238 (8512)

VeryLucky888

Timberwolves

Invested

$270

Value

$150.99

PnL

+$20

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

38791873984189

Timberwolves

Invested

$99.74

Value

$133.86

PnL

+$42.09

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

HomeRunHazard

Timberwolves

Invested

$122.86

Value

$129.18

PnL

+$6.33

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

NM-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$104.99

Value

$100

PnL

-$5

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

hi774cCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$23.03

Value

$29.04

PnL

+$6.01

Record

50%

4971-4900 (9871)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$19.71

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

11950-10370 (22320)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$23.35

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$4.29

Record

48%

371-394 (765)

justaluckydude<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$10.07

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$4.21

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$15.42

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$2.3

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$3.62

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Timberwolves) and the top 1000 (7 on Rockets) disagree here.

whaleTimberwolves 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTimberwolves 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.