Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (55%) · Thunder at 69¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers32¢Thunder68¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$36.23

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers32%

Thunder69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,716

Combined PnL+$59.17

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,813

Combined PnL-$95.4

Thunder — 55%Trail Blazers — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (6 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 67.1¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$52.59	55% 541-436 (977)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Trail Blazersavg 32.9¢	$1.1K	$983.81	-$77.45	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 69.7¢	$469.91	$462.35	-$7.56	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
RN1ARB<$100	Thunderavg 68.6¢	$410.61	$365.57	-$45.04	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 68.6¢	$256.24	$255.8	-$0.44
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 44.3¢	$154.37	$109.77	-$44.6
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 68.2¢	$133.14	$130.82	-$2.32	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
TA takeormake	Thunderavg 65.1¢	$110.63	$118.15	+$7.52	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Thunderavg 61.6¢	$66.76	$75.87	+$9.11	61% 908-580 (1488)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 31¢	$72.23	$71.07	-$1.17	53% 228-199 (427)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 40¢	$66.72	$50.87	-$15.85	29% 315-788 (1103)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 31¢	$30.38	$29.89	-$0.49	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 31¢	$27.9	$27.45	-$0.45	64% 188-108 (296)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 69¢	$22.77	$22.61	-$0.16	49% 498-518 (1016)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$2,442.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$52.59

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

FlaznorpCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,061.26

Value

$983.81

PnL

-$77.45

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$469.91

Value

$462.35

PnL

-$7.56

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

RN1ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$410.61

Value

$365.57

PnL

-$45.04

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Thunder$256.2468.6¢-$0.44

Trail Blazers$154.3744.3¢-$44.6

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$133.14

Value

$130.82

PnL

-$2.32

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

takeormake

Thunder

Invested

$110.63

Value

$118.15

PnL

+$7.52

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

darkumbreon88<$100

Thunder

Invested

$66.76

Value

$75.87

PnL

+$9.11

Record

61%

908-580 (1488)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$72.23

Value

$71.07

PnL

-$1.17

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$66.72

Value

$50.87

PnL

-$15.85

Record

29%

315-788 (1103)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$30.38

Value

$29.89

PnL

-$0.49

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$27.9

Value

$27.45

PnL

-$0.45

Record

64%

188-108 (296)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$22.77

Value

$22.61

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (6 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.