Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (87%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 14¢ · $519 held · ended Nov 11

Over87¢Under13¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$519.39

Combined PnL

-$69.66

Smart Money Entry

35¢ → 13.5¢

-61% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over87%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$395.01

Total Shares1,327

Combined PnL-$69.66

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.5¢	$160.04	$205.42	+$45.39	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 40¢	$181.83	$124.39	-$57.44	53% 228-199 (427)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$57	$88.5	+$31.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 40¢	$124.83	$35.89	-$88.94
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 46¢	$112.7	$105.35	-$7.35	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
RN1CTR	Underavg 32¢	$164.48	$59.11	-$105.37	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 33.9¢	$6.1	$7.74	+$1.64	54% 445-377 (822)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 34.7¢	$5.56	$6.9	+$1.33	35% 279-508 (787)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$4.78	$5.56	+$0.78	29% 315-788 (1103)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 25.6¢	$11.01	$4.94	-$6.07	55% 541-436 (977)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$160.04

Value

$205.42

PnL

+$45.39

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$181.83

Value

$124.39

PnL

-$57.44

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

Both legs:

Over$5757¢+$31.5

Under$124.8340¢-$88.94

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$112.7

Value

$105.35

PnL

-$7.35

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$164.48

Value

$59.11

PnL

-$105.37

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.1

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$1.64

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.56

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$1.33

Record

35%

279-508 (787)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.78

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.78

Record

29%

315-788 (1103)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.01

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$6.07

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.