Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (83%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 221.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 17¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$600.81

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 16.6¢

-61% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,687

Combined PnL-$830.16

Over1 trader

Total Value$506.35

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$229.35

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 38.5¢	$1.2K	$923.76	-$290.29	56% 563-451 (1014)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 51¢	$277	$506.35	+$229.35	53% 234-204 (438)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 44.3¢	$392.49	$197.82	-$194.67	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
└ Over leg	Overavg 89¢	$139.06	$140.63	+$1.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.3¢	$253.43	$57.19	-$196.24
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 36.7¢	$275.65	$188.55	-$87.1	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.5¢	$65.98	$102.89	+$36.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.7¢	$209.66	$85.66	-$124
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$392	$120	-$272	29% 72-176 (248)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$282.15	$86.92	-$195.23	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 42¢	$113.89	$43.15	-$70.75	57% 3109-2336 (5445)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$2.56	$0.67	-$1.89	54% 461-396 (857)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,214.05

Value

$923.76

PnL

-$290.29

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$277

Value

$506.35

PnL

+$229.35

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$392.49

Value

$197.82

PnL

-$194.67

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Both legs:

Over$139.0689¢+$1.56

Under$253.4344.3¢-$196.24

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$275.65

Value

$188.55

PnL

-$87.1

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

Both legs:

Over$65.9854.5¢+$36.9

Under$209.6636.7¢-$124

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$392

Value

$120

PnL

-$272

Record

29%

72-176 (248)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$282.15

Value

$86.92

PnL

-$195.23

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$113.89

Value

$43.15

PnL

-$70.75

Record

57%

3109-2336 (5445)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.56

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$1.89

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.3%

16.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$445.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

545.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.