Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 65¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$41.19

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 65¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$337.13

Total Shares377

Combined PnL+$36.67

Over2 traders

Total Value$140.15

Total Shares317

Combined PnL+$4.52

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 34.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$119.44	56% 563-451 (1014)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.7¢	$893.55	$991.34	+$97.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.8¢	$261.77	$283.42	+$21.65
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 60.7¢	$1.5K	$993.77	+$375.39	53% 234-204 (438)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.7¢	$562.92	$682.14	+$313.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 21.2¢	$249.62	$311.62	+$62
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 63.9¢	$276.53	$314.89	+$38.35	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 42.4¢	$231.27	$232.85	+$1.58	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.4¢	$145.44	$145.83	+$0.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.7¢	$85.84	$87.02	+$1.18
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 43.4¢	$133.48	$138.25	+$4.77	29% 332-810 (1142)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 43.4¢	$109.14	$106.68	-$2.47	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.4¢	$67.82	$59.34	-$8.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$41.32	$47.33	+$6.01
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 57¢	$23.92	$22.24	-$1.68	35% 280-514 (794)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 21.5¢	$2.15	$1.9	-$0.25	54% 461-396 (857)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,155.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$119.44

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Both legs:

Over$893.5534.7¢+$97.79

Under$261.7756.8¢+$21.65

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,455.11

Value

$993.77

PnL

+$375.39

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

Both legs:

Under$562.9260.7¢+$313.39

Over$249.6221.2¢+$62

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$276.53

Value

$314.89

PnL

+$38.35

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$231.27

Value

$232.85

PnL

+$1.58

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Both legs:

Over$145.4442.4¢+$0.4

Under$85.8456.7¢+$1.18

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$133.48

Value

$138.25

PnL

+$4.77

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$109.14

Value

$106.68

PnL

-$2.47

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

Both legs:

Over$67.8243.4¢-$8.48

Under$41.3254.1¢+$6.01

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$23.92

Value

$22.24

PnL

-$1.68

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.