76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 54¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$26.26

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares13,588

Combined PnL-$61.78

Over5 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares12,773

Combined PnL+$88.04

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 47¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$50.79	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52.7¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$76.12	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 49¢	$453.19	$457.82	+$4.62	49% 507-531 (1038)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 53¢	$402.44	$406.24	+$3.8	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
RN1CTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$362.5	$348.75	-$13.75	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
GC GC-P	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$187.25	+$1.75	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$187.25	+$1.75	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 49¢	$156.8	$161.6	+$4.8	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$237.5	$116.25	-$3.75	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 46¢	$114.17	$71.67	+$1.71	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 47.1¢	$67.15	$59.06	+$0.75	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$36.56	$26.41	-$0.75	57% 24613-18229 (42842)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$5,947.34

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$50.79

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$5,702.53

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$76.12

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$453.19

Value

$457.82

PnL

+$4.62

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$402.44

Value

$406.24

PnL

+$3.8

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$362.5

Value

$348.75

PnL

-$13.75

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$185.5

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$185.5

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$156.8

Value

$161.6

PnL

+$4.8

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$237.5

Value

$116.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$114.17

Value

$71.67

PnL

+$1.71

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.15

Value

$59.06

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.56

Value

$26.41

PnL

-$0.75

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.