Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$10.46

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 47.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$689.68

Total Shares1,502

Combined PnL-$6.64

Under5 traders

Total Value$572.39

Total Shares1,040

Combined PnL-$3.82

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pmCTR	Overavg 46¢	$259.44	$250.98	-$8.46	48% 3580-3942 (7522)
nigiri99	Underavg 56.8¢	$195.92	$191.48	-$4.44	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 46¢	$187.45	$189.48	+$2.04	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$163.17	$164.91	+$1.74	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54¢	$160.45	$161.51	+$1.05	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
RN1	Underavg 53¢	$132.5	$131.25	-$1.25	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 54¢	$69.32	$70.04	+$0.72	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$155.56	$69.22	-$2.33	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 54.2¢	$18.02	$18.13	+$0.11	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$8.1	$8.37	+$0.27	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.6	$6.72	+$0.11	57% 22329-16593 (38922)

dv-pmCTR

Over

Invested

$259.44

Value

$250.98

PnL

-$8.46

Record

48%

3580-3942 (7522)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$195.92

Value

$191.48

PnL

-$4.44

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$187.45

Value

$189.48

PnL

+$2.04

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$163.17

Value

$164.91

PnL

+$1.74

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$160.45

Value

$161.51

PnL

+$1.05

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

RN1

Under

Invested

$132.5

Value

$131.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$69.32

Value

$70.04

PnL

+$0.72

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$155.56

Value

$69.22

PnL

-$2.33

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$18.02

Value

$18.13

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.37

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.