Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Spurs (56%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Spurs (-13.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (80%) · Bulls at 44¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 12

Spurs56¢Bulls44¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 80%

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$332.3

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 44¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs56%

Bulls44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs2 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares10,062

Combined PnL+$0.05

Bulls8 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares26,145

Combined PnL+$332.25

Spurs — 20%Bulls — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+55 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBulls 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Siddhartha1	Spursavg 58¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	-$0	60% 94-62 (156)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bullsavg 41.9¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$11.91	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Bullsavg 42¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$234.17	51% 3724-3550 (7274)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bullsavg 42¢	$920.2	$974.89	+$54.69	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Bullsavg 42¢	$531.04	$562.65	+$31.61	31% 412-918 (1330)
GC GC-PCTR	Bullsavg 42¢	$150.78	$150.84	+$0.07	20% 99-384 (483)
NM NM-PCTR	Bullsavg 42¢	$147	$147	+$0	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 42.4¢	$14.85	$14.7	-$0.15	49% 692-733 (1425)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Spursavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.9	+$0.05	34% 327-634 (961)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.1	-$0.05	39% 394-619 (1013)

Siddhartha1

Spurs

Invested

$5,833.32

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

94-62 (156)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bulls

Invested

$5,366.96

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$11.91

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Bulls

Invested

$3,934.14

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$234.17

Record

51%

3724-3550 (7274)

FlaznorpCTR

Bulls

Invested

$920.2

Value

$974.89

PnL

+$54.69

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

LightParadoxCTR

Bulls

Invested

$531.04

Value

$562.65

PnL

+$31.61

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

GC-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$150.78

Value

$150.84

PnL

+$0.07

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

NM-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$147

Value

$147

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$14.85

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

ameisgoat11<$100

Spurs

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+55 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSpurs 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBulls 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.