Consensus PnL $363K · win rate 55% (64–53, n=117) · PM monthly #197 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$362.9K
Record
64W / 53L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 117 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1466
Source
PM monthly #197
Trades
36
Markets
135
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 12 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $91K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $86K · now 72¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $62K · now 71¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $27K · now 91¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (45% of 11)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $24K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $22K · now 89¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?No $17K · now 63¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $14K · now 65¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
Specialties
62 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 54¢- NFL
+49 pts
side won 100% of 25 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
- Soccer
+44 pts
side won 100% of 32 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 100% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 60%(won 100% of 37)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 100% of 5)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.