Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 56¢ · $851 held · ends Nov 9

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$850.88

Combined PnL

$48.5

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 55.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$681.05

Total Shares1,205

Combined PnL+$60.89

Over6 traders

Total Value$169.83

Total Shares390

Combined PnL-$12.39

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$472.46	$523.41	+$50.95	51% 29-28 (57)
nigiri99	Underavg 52.9¢	$147.7	$157.64	+$9.94	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$88.39	$81.81	-$6.58	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$64.11	$59.91	-$4.2	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$13.9	$12.89	-$0.83	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$11.25	$10.88	-$0.38	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.18	-$0.23	52% 9515-8627 (18142)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.18	-$0.18	50% 27958-27406 (55364)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$472.46

Value

$523.41

PnL

+$50.95

Record

51%

29-28 (57)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$147.7

Value

$157.64

PnL

+$9.94

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.39

Value

$81.81

PnL

-$6.58

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.11

Value

$59.91

PnL

-$4.2

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.9

Value

$12.89

PnL

-$0.83

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.25

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$0.38

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.