Will Vitesse Arnhem win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 91¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$10.1K
-$657.55
85¢ → 91.3¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AH aHjCz | Noavg 86.2¢ | $8.3K | $8.6K | +$485.86 | 36% 6093-11041 (17134) |
SL SlickRick123CTR | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $2.2K | $1.2K | $-1.0K | 48% 5549-6067 (11616) |
LR lryyyCTR | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $292.1 | $167.19 | -$124.91 | 47% 9585-10702 (20287) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 50¢ | $150.77 | $161.32 | +$10.55 | 50% 2796-2767 (5563) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $10.98 | $11.13 | +$0.16 | 64% 5377-2997 (8374) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10 | $10.29 | +$0.29 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $9.47 | $8.94 | -$0.53 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
Invested
$8,297.43
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$485.86
Record
36%
6093-11041 (17134)
Invested
$2,197.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
48%
5549-6067 (11616)
Invested
$292.1
Value
$167.19
PnL
-$124.91
Record
47%
9585-10702 (20287)
Invested
$150.77
Value
$161.32
PnL
+$10.55
Record
50%
2796-2767 (5563)
Invested
$10.98
Value
$11.13
PnL
+$0.16
Record
64%
5377-2997 (8374)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$0.29
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$9.47
Value
$8.94
PnL
-$0.53
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.