Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 64.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 86¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$11.4K
$504.06
70.9¢ → 85.5¢
+21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 70.8¢ | $6.8K | $6.9K | +$63.78 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
PR primm | Underavg 71¢ | $2.5K | $2.8K | +$309.57 | 46% 1131-1309 (2440) |
 Nooserac | Underavg 71.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$175.96 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
TO topdogbigboi | Underavg 73.6¢ | $138.11 | $134.4 | -$3.71 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $91.8 | $51 | -$40.8 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
IC ic4creamCTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $9.84 | $8.95 | -$0.89 | 59% 2660-1871 (4531) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $5.85 | $6 | +$0.15 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
RN1Invested
$6,801.98
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$63.78
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$2,454.18
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$309.57
Record
46%
1131-1309 (2440)
NooseracInvested
$1,399.23
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$175.96
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$138.11
Value
$134.4
PnL
-$3.71
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$91.8
Value
$51
PnL
-$40.8
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$8.95
PnL
-$0.89
Record
59%
2660-1871 (4531)
Invested
$5.85
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.15
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.