Spread: Steelers (-6.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (67%) · Steelers at 67¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Steelers
6
Steelers 67%
1 arb excluded
$8.0K
$444.56
59.4¢ → 66.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSteelers at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Steelersavg 62.5¢ | $4.1K | $4.4K | +$306.37 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
| └ Steelers leg | Steelersavg 62.5¢ | $3.2K | $3.5K | +$282.64 | |
| └ Browns leg | Brownsavg 31.1¢ | $856.59 | $880.32 | +$23.73 | |
AN Anon455 | Steelersavg 62¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$105 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Brownsavg 37¢ | $945.35 | $1.3K | +$357.7 | 46% 367-427 (794) |
PR primm | Steelersavg 46¢ | $146.28 | $155.82 | +$9.54 | 46% 1131-1309 (2440) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Steelersavg 41¢ | $80.36 | $96.04 | +$15.68 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Brownsavg 59.3¢ | $123.69 | $80.25 | -$43.44 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Steelersavg 62¢ | $9.3 | $9.38 | +$0.07 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$4,066.74
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$306.37
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,860
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$105
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
Invested
$945.35
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$357.7
Record
46%
367-427 (794)
Invested
$146.28
Value
$155.82
PnL
+$9.54
Record
46%
1131-1309 (2440)
Invested
$80.36
Value
$96.04
PnL
+$15.68
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$123.69
Value
$80.25
PnL
-$43.44
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.38
PnL
+$0.07
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.