Cowboys vs. Colts

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (36%) · Cowboys at 70¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Cowboys70¢Colts30¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 36%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$7.7

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 69.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys70%

Colts31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,785

Combined PnL+$14.81

Colts7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,937

Combined PnL-$7.11

Cowboys — 36%Colts — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cowboys) and the top 1000 (10 on Colts) disagree here.

whaleColts 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpColts 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Cowboysavg 69¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	+$13.06	58% 46330-33448 (79778)
DA darkumbreon88	Cowboysavg 69¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$0	64% 1955-1087 (3042)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Coltsavg 31¢	$2.7K	$817.38	-$13.4	54% 1220-1042 (2262)
DV dv-pmCTR	Coltsavg 30.6¢	$269.36	$263.82	+$4.4	49% 3323-3513 (6836)
38 38791873984189	Cowboysavg 69¢	$363.22	$242.02	+$1.74	48% 60760-65418 (126178)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Coltsavg 30¢	$279.7	$85.31	+$1.4	51% 25630-24353 (49983)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Coltsavg 30¢	$20.52	$20.52	-$0	64% 9844-5498 (15342)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Coltsavg 29¢	$30.13	$10.41	+$0.45	49% 4465-4662 (9127)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Cowboysavg 69¢	$2.23	$2.23	+$0.02	51% 4750-4617 (9367)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Coltsavg 29¢	$0.41	$0.43	+$0.02	54% 12071-10461 (22532)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Coltsavg 29¢	$0.41	$0.42	+$0.01	58% 20305-14907 (35212)

VeryLucky888

Cowboys

Invested

$2,606.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$13.06

Record

58%

46330-33448 (79778)

darkumbreon88

Cowboys

Invested

$1,261.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

1955-1087 (3042)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Colts

Invested

$2,679.94

Value

$817.38

PnL

-$13.4

Record

54%

1220-1042 (2262)

dv-pmCTR

Colts

Invested

$269.36

Value

$263.82

PnL

+$4.4

Record

49%

3323-3513 (6836)

38791873984189

Cowboys

Invested

$363.22

Value

$242.02

PnL

+$1.74

Record

48%

60760-65418 (126178)

FlaznorpCTR

Colts

Invested

$279.7

Value

$85.31

PnL

+$1.4

Record

51%

25630-24353 (49983)

NM-PCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$20.52

Value

$20.52

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

9844-5498 (15342)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$30.13

Value

$10.41

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

4465-4662 (9127)

6512395314597884<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

4750-4617 (9367)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

12071-10461 (22532)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cowboys) and the top 1000 (10 on Colts) disagree here.

whaleColts 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpColts 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.