Consensus PnL $367K · win rate 78% (283–80, n=363) · PM monthly #760 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$367.1K
Record
283W / 80L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 363 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#494
Source
PM monthly #760
Trades
409
Markets
372
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 8 on the consensus side (38%)- Raptors vs. LakersRaptors $2.2K · now 43¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Lakers)
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under $2.1K · now 55¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Over)
- Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)Cowboys $2.1K · now 56¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Cardinals)
- Cardinals vs. CowboysCowboys $2.0K · now 75¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (Cardinals)
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over $2.0K · now 54¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (50% of 9)
- Browns vs. SteelersSteelers $2.0K · now 65¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (64% of 12)
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Over $2.0K · now 48¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Under)
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Raiders $2.0K · now 50¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
Specialties
286 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 53¢- MLB
+47 pts
side won 100% of 111 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +47%
- College Football
+47 pts
side won 100% of 68 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +48%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 100% of 42 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +48%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 100% of 42)
- 50–70¢: 84%(won 99% of 240)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.