Spread: Jaguars (-14.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (75%) · Jaguars at 72¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 6

Jaguars72¢Ravens28¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaguars

Consensus Traders

Jaguars 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$507.24

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 71.5¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars72%

Ravens28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,737

Combined PnL+$521.11

Ravens2 traders

Total Value$47.85

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$13.88

Jaguars — 75%Ravens — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Jaguarsavg 53.7¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$578.64	50% 4446-4373 (8819)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Ravensavg 43.8¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$170.05	51% 4772-4633 (9405)
└ Jaguars leg	Jaguarsavg 44.5¢	$849.09	$1.4K	+$554.09
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 43.8¢	$970.67	$586.63	-$384.04
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Ravensavg 56.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$19.08	53% 12169-10675 (22844)
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 56.9¢	$686.36	$729.67	+$43.3
└ Jaguars leg	Jaguarsavg 41.7¢	$465.9	$441.68	-$24.23
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jaguarsavg 41.7¢	$539.61	$393.69	-$19.92	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
└ Jaguars leg	Jaguarsavg 41.7¢	$244.54	$225.65	-$18.06
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 62.2¢	$169.91	$168.04	-$1.87
FE ferrariChampions2026	Jaguarsavg 43.5¢	$429.63	$350.49	-$79.13	42% 8009-11197 (19206)
TO topdogbigboi	Jaguarsavg 43¢	$124.19	$148.76	+$24.57	47% 11750-13484 (25234)
RN1	Jaguarsavg 45¢	$99	$130.9	+$31.9	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
TA takeormake<$100	Jaguarsavg 42.2¢	$66.72	$64.78	-$1.94	52% 4917-4466 (9383)
LI Limousin<$100	Jaguarsavg 37.7¢	$70.12	$37.2	-$32.92	53% 1442-1288 (2730)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ravensavg 59.7¢	$88.42	$34.36	-$14.53	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Ravensavg 48¢	$12.84	$13.49	+$0.66	58% 21279-15443 (36722)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Jaguars

Invested

$1,627.25

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$578.64

Record

50%

4446-4373 (8819)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$1,819.76

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$170.05

Record

51%

4772-4633 (9405)

Both legs:

Jaguars$849.0944.5¢+$554.09

Ravens$970.6743.8¢-$384.04

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$1,152.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$19.08

Record

53%

12169-10675 (22844)

Both legs:

Ravens$686.3656.9¢+$43.3

Jaguars$465.941.7¢-$24.23

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$539.61

Value

$393.69

PnL

-$19.92

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

Both legs:

Jaguars$244.5441.7¢-$18.06

Ravens$169.9162.2¢-$1.87

ferrariChampions2026

Jaguars

Invested

$429.63

Value

$350.49

PnL

-$79.13

Record

42%

8009-11197 (19206)

topdogbigboi

Jaguars

Invested

$124.19

Value

$148.76

PnL

+$24.57

Record

47%

11750-13484 (25234)

RN1

Jaguars

Invested

$99

Value

$130.9

PnL

+$31.9

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

takeormake<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$66.72

Value

$64.78

PnL

-$1.94

Record

52%

4917-4466 (9383)

Limousin<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$70.12

Value

$37.2

PnL

-$32.92

Record

53%

1442-1288 (2730)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$88.42

Value

$34.36

PnL

-$14.53

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$12.84

Value

$13.49

PnL

+$0.66

Record

58%

21279-15443 (36722)

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.