Rams vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 83¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

-$120.72

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 82.5¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,869

Combined PnL-$292.51

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,575

Combined PnL+$171.79

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 55¢	$3.1K	$1.6K	-$107.33	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
RN1	Underavg 56¢	$2.6K	$1.3K	-$116.95	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 44¢	$678.5	$747.37	+$68.87	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 44¢	$626.85	$690.96	+$64.11	48% 233-252 (485)
AU Aurelius7	Underavg 58¢	$350	$310.78	-$39.22	47% 293-334 (627)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 56.3¢	$600	$309	-$29	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 42¢	$214.53	$247.65	+$33.12	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$92	$44.62	+$5.06	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$11.46	$5.56	+$0.63	46% 33351-38883 (72234)

primm

Under

Invested

$3,066.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$107.33

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,599

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$116.95

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$678.5

Value

$747.37

PnL

+$68.87

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$626.85

Value

$690.96

PnL

+$64.11

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

Aurelius7

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$310.78

PnL

-$39.22

Record

47%

293-334 (627)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$600

Value

$309

PnL

-$29

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$214.53

Value

$247.65

PnL

+$33.12

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92

Value

$44.62

PnL

+$5.06

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.46

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.63

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.