Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 46.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 51¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$22.7K
$441.5
48¢ → 50.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 48¢ | $9.4K | $9.8K | +$479.54 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $5.4K | $5.3K | -$52.67 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $5.1K | $5.0K | -$50 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$70.11 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Underavg 50.3¢ | $287.64 | $283.14 | -$4.5 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $53 | $52.47 | -$0.53 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $47.78 | $46.84 | -$0.47 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$9,354.63
Value
$9.8K
PnL
+$479.54
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$5,371.83
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$52.67
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$5,100
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$50
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$2,243.52
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$70.11
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$287.64
Value
$283.14
PnL
-$4.5
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$53
Value
$52.47
PnL
-$0.53
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$47.78
Value
$46.84
PnL
-$0.47
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.