Consensus PnL $708K · win rate 55% (719–596, n=1315) · PM monthly #52 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$707.9K
Record
719W / 596L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 1315 settled
Batting Avg
61.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1448
Source
PM monthly #52
Trades
1,631
Markets
1,845
Volume
$13.7M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 19 on the consensus side (79%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $115K · now 65¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Weed rescheduled by December 31?No $38K · now 90¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $21K · now 70¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $20K · now 77¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)Lions $19K · now 48¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $18K · now 26¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (45% of 40)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $17K · now 46¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 68¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
Specialties
881 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 58¢- NHL
+41 pts
side won 94% of 88 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +45%
- Esports
+37 pts
side won 97% of 198 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +35%
- NFL
+35 pts
side won 85% of 75 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +43%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 38% of 45 at an average 38¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 33% of 82)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 83% of 229)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 91% of 319)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 98% of 251)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.