Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 48.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 46¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 9

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$205.84

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 45.5¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares18,867

Combined PnL-$215.45

Under3 traders

Total Value$779.05

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL+$9.61

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$139.56	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47¢	$3.29	$1.5K	-$49.87	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.74	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$999.98	$970.79	-$29.19	55% 826-683 (1509)
nigiri99	Underavg 53.9¢	$741.57	$750.47	+$8.89	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$322.27	$321.66	-$0.6	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$226.77	$229.22	+$2.44	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 48¢	$400	$186	-$6	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$54	$54.6	+$0.6	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$18.07	$18.58	+$0.51	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 52¢	$9.8	$10	+$0.2	52% 27288-24794 (52082)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$4,652.42

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$139.56

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$3.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$49.87

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,095.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.74

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$999.98

Value

$970.79

PnL

-$29.19

Record

55%

826-683 (1509)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$741.57

Value

$750.47

PnL

+$8.89

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$322.27

Value

$321.66

PnL

-$0.6

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$226.77

Value

$229.22

PnL

+$2.44

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$186

PnL

-$6

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$18.07

Value

$18.58

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.