Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Titans (95%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Bengals (-6.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (50%) · Bengals at 5.0¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Bengals
6
Bengals 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
-$39.01
60.5¢ → 5¢
-92% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBengals at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Bengalsavg 61¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$12.99 | 54% 1249-1044 (2293) |
 RN1 | Titansavg 39.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$4.69 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Titansavg 51.5¢ | $217.51 | $216.65 | -$0.86 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Bengalsavg 59.8¢ | $147.94 | $148.95 | +$1.01 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Titansavg 48¢ | $117.56 | $104.07 | -$13.49 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
| └ Bengals leg | Bengalsavg 59.4¢ | $57.12 | $70.68 | +$13.56 | |
| └ Titans leg | Titansavg 48¢ | $60.44 | $33.39 | -$27.05 | |
AN Anon455<$100 | Titansavg 53.2¢ | $59.3 | $43.99 | -$15.31 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Bengalsavg 47¢ | $44.65 | $38.48 | -$6.17 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
Invested
$1,584.17
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$12.99
Record
54%
1249-1044 (2293)
RN1Invested
$1,108.38
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$4.69
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$217.51
Value
$216.65
PnL
-$0.86
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$147.94
Value
$148.95
PnL
+$1.01
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
Invested
$117.56
Value
$104.07
PnL
-$13.49
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.3
Value
$43.99
PnL
-$15.31
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
Invested
$44.65
Value
$38.48
PnL
-$6.17
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.