Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Titans (98%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Bengals (-8.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (86%) · Bengals at 1.9¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Bengals
7
Bengals 86%
$1.8K
-$241.57
39¢ → 1.9¢
-95% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidBengals at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NooseracCTR | Bengalsavg 36¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$79.4 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
 RN1 | Titansavg 58¢ | $299.86 | $271.43 | -$28.44 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Bengalsavg 61¢ | $152.5 | $85 | -$67.5 | 53% 11583-10087 (21670) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Bengalsavg 48¢ | $63.36 | $62.7 | -$0.66 | 50% 3948-3932 (7880) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Bengalsavg 61.7¢ | $90.64 | $49.98 | -$40.66 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Bengalsavg 62¢ | $40.3 | $22.1 | -$18.2 | 53% 453-396 (849) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Bengalsavg 62¢ | $14.88 | $8.16 | -$6.72 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
NooseracCTRInvested
$1,429.2
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$79.4
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
RN1Invested
$299.86
Value
$271.43
PnL
-$28.44
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$152.5
Value
$85
PnL
-$67.5
Record
53%
11583-10087 (21670)
Invested
$63.36
Value
$62.7
PnL
-$0.66
Record
50%
3948-3932 (7880)
Invested
$90.64
Value
$49.98
PnL
-$40.66
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$40.3
Value
$22.1
PnL
-$18.2
Record
53%
453-396 (849)
Invested
$14.88
Value
$8.16
PnL
-$6.72
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.