Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kraken, while the market favors Hurricanes (53%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (89%) · Kraken at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Hurricanes53¢Kraken47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kraken

Consensus Traders

Kraken 89%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$37.64

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 47.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes53%

Kraken48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hurricanes1 trader

Total Value$957.09

Total Shares1,823

Combined PnL+$45.58

Kraken8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,887

Combined PnL-$7.94

Hurricanes — 11%Kraken — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roldy	Hurricanesavg 50¢	$911.51	$957.09	+$45.58	— 5-6 (11)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Krakenavg 50¢	$862	$844.76	-$17.24	57% 3336-2523 (5859)
fyrskenCTR	Krakenavg 48¢	$539.04	$550.27	+$11.23	47% 21-24 (45)
38 38791873984189CTR	Krakenavg 48.9¢	$359.64	$360.15	+$0.51	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Krakenavg 50¢	$75	$73.5	-$1.5	27% 84-232 (316)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Krakenavg 50¢	$36.74	$36.01	-$0.73	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Krakenavg 48.3¢	$17.86	$18.13	+$0.27	47% 847-942 (1789)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Krakenavg 50.8¢	$22.08	$17.95	-$0.14	54% 789-676 (1465)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Krakenavg 49¢	$10.78	$10.45	-$0.33	55% 156-128 (284)

roldy

Hurricanes

Invested

$911.51

Value

$957.09

PnL

+$45.58

Record

—

5-6 (11)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kraken

Invested

$862

Value

$844.76

PnL

-$17.24

Record

57%

3336-2523 (5859)

fyrskenCTR

Kraken

Invested

$539.04

Value

$550.27

PnL

+$11.23

Record

47%

21-24 (45)

38791873984189CTR

Kraken

Invested

$359.64

Value

$360.15

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$75

Value

$73.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

27%

84-232 (316)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$36.74

Value

$36.01

PnL

-$0.73

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$17.86

Value

$18.13

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$22.08

Value

$17.95

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$10.78

Value

$10.45

PnL

-$0.33

Record

55%

156-128 (284)

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kraken wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.