Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 55¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$41.55

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 54.5¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$572.87

Total Shares947

Combined PnL-$38.69

Over6 traders

Total Value$467.55

Total Shares1,078

Combined PnL+$80.24

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 65¢	$260.24	$268.25	+$8.01	51% 300-292 (592)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 65¢	$290.6	$228.79	-$42.66	48% 949-1019 (1968)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 35¢	$144.74	$188.16	+$43.42	28% 275-716 (991)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 35¢	$145.73	$166.55	+$20.82	28% 279-730 (1009)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$71.37	$92.78	+$21.41	28% 279-704 (983)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Underavg 55.1¢	$54.52	$53.91	-$0.61	47% 500-558 (1058)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 62.7¢	$25.36	$21.93	-$3.43	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 42.3¢	$33.16	$17.65	-$5.3	49% 444-470 (914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.79	$1.5	-$0.29	54% 383-322 (705)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$0.72	$0.9	+$0.18	50% 182-181 (363)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$260.24

Value

$268.25

PnL

+$8.01

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$290.6

Value

$228.79

PnL

-$42.66

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$144.74

Value

$188.16

PnL

+$43.42

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$145.73

Value

$166.55

PnL

+$20.82

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.37

Value

$92.78

PnL

+$21.41

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Under

Invested

$54.52

Value

$53.91

PnL

-$0.61

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$25.36

Value

$21.93

PnL

-$3.43

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.16

Value

$17.65

PnL

-$5.3

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

182-181 (363)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.