Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blue Jackets, while the market favors Panthers (53%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Panthers vs. Blue Jackets

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (38%) · Blue Jackets at 48¢ · $126K held · ends Nov 11

Panthers53¢Blue Jackets47¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blue Jackets

Consensus Traders

Blue Jackets 38%

Total Value

$126.2K

Combined PnL

-$410.99

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers53%

Blue Jackets48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blue Jackets3 traders

Total Value$63.6K

Total Shares133,870

Combined PnL-$668.95

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$62.6K

Total Shares119,842

Combined PnL+$257.95

Blue Jackets — 38%Panthers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBlue Jackets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Blue Jacketsavg 48¢	$64.2K	$63.5K	-$668.61	53% 95-83 (178)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Panthersavg 52¢	$33.6K	$33.6K	+$0	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
JU justwins	Panthersavg 52¢	$26.7K	$27.0K	+$257.17	49% 107-110 (217)
HO HomeRunHazard	Panthersavg 52¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888	Panthersavg 52¢	$104	$104	+$0	55% 106-86 (192)
WE westing.v1<$100	Panthersavg 52¢	$81.6	$82.38	+$0.78	5% 3-62 (65)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 48¢	$95.7	$47.7	-$0	48% 421-450 (871)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 48.2¢	$23.07	$22.74	-$0.33	53% 323-288 (611)

taylorsversionCTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$64,186.82

Value

$63.5K

PnL

-$668.61

Record

53%

95-83 (178)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Panthers

Invested

$33,600.41

Value

$33.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

justwins

Panthers

Invested

$26,745.57

Value

$27.0K

PnL

+$257.17

Record

49%

107-110 (217)

HomeRunHazard

Panthers

Invested

$1,786.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0xheavy888

Panthers

Invested

$104

Value

$104

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

106-86 (192)

westing.v1<$100

Panthers

Invested

$81.6

Value

$82.38

PnL

+$0.78

Record

3-62 (65)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$95.7

Value

$47.7

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$23.07

Value

$22.74

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBlue Jackets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blue Jackets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.