Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Predators vs. Kings: O/U 6.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 0.5¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares13,728

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Under4 traders

Total Value$447.17

Total Shares476

Combined PnL+$15.48

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46.7¢	$4.0K	$1.0K	$-3.0K	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.9K	$479.37	$-1.4K	29% 315-788 (1103)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54¢	$549.48	$297.47	+$22.14	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 79.6¢	$152.55	$118.75	-$9.61	49% 498-518 (1016)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 51¢	$364.76	$85.83	-$278.94	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$41.75	$31.22	-$10.53	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$57.06	$30.95	-$26.12	48% 231-247 (478)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 89¢	$23.14	$22.88	-$0.26	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 53¢	$4.86	$8.07	+$3.21	54% 445-377 (822)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,045.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$1,877.54

Value

$479.37

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

29%

315-788 (1103)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$549.48

Value

$297.47

PnL

+$22.14

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$152.55

Value

$118.75

PnL

-$9.61

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$364.76

Value

$85.83

PnL

-$278.94

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.75

Value

$31.22

PnL

-$10.53

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.06

Value

$30.95

PnL

-$26.12

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$23.14

Value

$22.88

PnL

-$0.26

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$4.86

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$3.21

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.