Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 7.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 93¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
1 arb excluded
$6.1K
-$189.29
70.4¢ → 93¢
+32% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 69.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$449.78 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
GA Gaditima | Underavg 68¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$460 | — |
 alpheclabs2 | Underavg 68¢ | $800.9 | $1.1K | +$270.89 | 45% 86-104 (190) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 85.7¢ | $533.97 | $563.73 | +$29.76 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Overavg 31.2¢ | $1.9K | $425.69 | $-1.5K | 1% 2-191 (193) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 70.3¢ | $247.93 | $142.52 | +$68.95 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
PA Pan9XARB<$100 | Underavg 70.3¢ | $139.28 | $88.58 | +$22.91 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70.3¢ | $52.05 | $67.35 | +$24.34 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 14.8¢ | $35 | $21.23 | -$1.43 | |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $16.89 | $21.06 | +$4.17 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 69.5¢ | $8.58 | $10.04 | +$1.46 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
RN1Invested
$1,453.94
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$449.78
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$1,369
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$460
Record
—
alpheclabs2Invested
$800.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$270.89
Record
45%
86-104 (190)
Invested
$533.97
Value
$563.73
PnL
+$29.76
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$1,900
Value
$425.69
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
1%
2-191 (193)
Invested
$247.93
Value
$142.52
PnL
+$68.95
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$139.28
Value
$88.58
PnL
+$22.91
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Both legs:
Invested
$16.89
Value
$21.06
PnL
+$4.17
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$8.58
Value
$10.04
PnL
+$1.46
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.