Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Morecambe FC vs. Hereford FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $94 held · ended Nov 10

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$94.22

Combined PnL

$14.3

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$73.8

Total Shares144

Combined PnL+$16.33

Over2 traders

Total Value$20.42

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$2.03

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$18.47	$24.83	+$6.36	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 41.8¢	$12.55	$15.6	+$3.05	25% 224-665 (889)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$9.69	$11.04	+$1.35	38% 209-339 (548)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 57¢	$12.84	$10.82	-$2.03	51% 251-244 (495)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$7.04	$9.89	+$2.85	26% 226-653 (879)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$8.2	$9.8	+$1.6	25% 222-667 (889)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.6	+$0	26% 226-645 (871)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$1.52	$2.64	+$1.12	44% 79-102 (181)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.47

Value

$24.83

PnL

+$6.36

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.55

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$3.05

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.69

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$1.35

Record

38%

209-339 (548)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$12.84

Value

$10.82

PnL

-$2.03

Record

51%

251-244 (495)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.04

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$2.85

Record

26%

226-653 (879)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.2

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$1.6

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

226-645 (871)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.52

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$1.12

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.