Will Viking FK vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo end in a draw?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.5K
$0.88
90.2¢ → 90¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 89.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$0.28 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1 | Noavg 92¢ | $115 | $117.5 | +$2.5 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $42.61 | $41 | -$1.61 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $40.3 | $39.53 | -$0.77 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $28.68 | $29.59 | +$0.92 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $4.33 | $4.3 | -$0.03 | 76% 4579-1422 (6001) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.35 | $0.5 | +$0.15 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
Invested
$1,272.13
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$0.28
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1Invested
$115
Value
$117.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$42.61
Value
$41
PnL
-$1.61
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$40.3
Value
$39.53
PnL
-$0.77
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$28.68
Value
$29.59
PnL
+$0.92
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$4.33
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$0.03
Record
76%
4579-1422 (6001)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.