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4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$4.7K
$82.02
75.9¢ → 96.8¢
+27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA Paul973973 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.6K | +$562.44 | 89% 923-118 (1041) |
 ImJustKen | Noavg 76¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$323.7 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
 Talophex | Noavg 78¢ | $390 | $483.75 | +$93.75 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $628.01 | $60.23 | -$567.78 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
TR troimCTR | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $366.08 | $30.28 | -$335.79 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $15.56 | $21.25 | +$5.69 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
QM QMG-CORE<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $0.97 | $0.98 | +$0 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$562.44
Record
89%
923-118 (1041)
ImJustKenInvested
$1,185.6
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$323.7
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
TalophexInvested
$390
Value
$483.75
PnL
+$93.75
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$628.01
Value
$60.23
PnL
-$567.78
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$366.08
Value
$30.28
PnL
-$335.79
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$15.56
Value
$21.25
PnL
+$5.69
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.98
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.