Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 98.6¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,601

Combined PnL+$187.5

Yes4 traders

Total Value$99.57

Total Shares6,867

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

641h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 94.9¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$84.41	73% 350-129 (479)
smellyEllie	Noavg 65¢	$161.6	$245.07	+$83.48	50% 970-988 (1958)
AR Arman2CTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$1.1K	$66.5	$-1.0K	58% 332-242 (574)
Relaccsed<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$28.9	$48.51	+$19.61	56% 1213-967 (2180)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$177.1	$30.89	-$146.21	59% 986-684 (1670)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$4	$1.45	-$2.55	74% 2792-1005 (3797)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$5.52	$0.73	-$4.79	77% 1204-366 (1570)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$2,185

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$84.41

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

smellyEllie

Invested

$161.6

Value

$245.07

PnL

+$83.48

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

Arman2CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,112.35

Value

$66.5

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

332-242 (574)

Relaccsed<$100

Invested

$28.9

Value

$48.51

PnL

+$19.61

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.1

Value

$30.89

PnL

-$146.21

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$2.55

Record

74%

2792-1005 (3797)

randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$4.79

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

641h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.