Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CS 2 de Mayo leading at halftime?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.6K
-$533.44
83.8¢ → 50¢
-40% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 86.5¢ | $1.6K | $915.98 | -$669.1 | 52% 242-224 (466) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 76¢ | $165.05 | $211.35 | +$46.3 | 45% 38-46 (84) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 24¢ | $91 | $189.58 | +$98.58 | 32% 68-143 (211) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 74.5¢ | $156.15 | $162.38 | +$6.24 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $85.47 | $60.3 | -$25.17 | 23% 49-165 (214) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $23.43 | $33.27 | +$9.84 | 54% 233-201 (434) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $2.99 | $2.86 | -$0.13 | 48% 35-38 (73) |
Invested
$1,585.08
Value
$915.98
PnL
-$669.1
Record
52%
242-224 (466)
Invested
$165.05
Value
$211.35
PnL
+$46.3
Record
45%
38-46 (84)
Invested
$91
Value
$189.58
PnL
+$98.58
Record
32%
68-143 (211)
Invested
$156.15
Value
$162.38
PnL
+$6.24
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
Invested
$85.47
Value
$60.3
PnL
-$25.17
Record
23%
49-165 (214)
RN1<$100Invested
$23.43
Value
$33.27
PnL
+$9.84
Record
54%
233-201 (434)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$2.86
PnL
-$0.13
Record
48%
35-38 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.